MMA DieHards Counterpunch: UFC on Fuel 1

Stefan Struve (L) and Dave Herman (R) stare-down at UFC on Fuel weigh-ins. (Photo courtesy of mmajunkie)

MMA DieHards is back with another session of Counterpunch, taking on UFC on Fuel 1, which takes place Wednesday at the  Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Neb.

UFC on Fuel 1 features a welterweight scrap between a UFC veteran Diego Sanchez and rising star Jake Ellenberger.  Heavyweights Stefan Struve and Dave Herman do battle in the co-main event, and middleweights Aaron Simpson and Ronny Markes square off.

MMADieHards.com put together a team of our finest writers to bring you Counterpunch for the event.  The group independently makes its selections for each fight. Minority picks will be defended by one of the panelists making that selection.

Joining us this week will be Mark Hensch, Shawn Baran, Robert G. Reynolds, Joe Rizzo and Jason Kelly.

Sean Loeffler is not covered below, as he was unanimously selected.

Below we list the match, the fighter being defended and the author of the defence.

Bernardo Magalhaes vs. Tim Means
Defending Magalhaes: Joe Rizzo 

Fine, Means has an nine-fight unbeaten streak and the cool-as-hell “Dirty Bird” nickname.  Now the down side.  Means has gone up in level of opponents three times in his career, and those are the three losses on his record (against 16 wins and a draw).  Luke Caudillo, Spencer Fish and Jaime Jara all found a way to finish Means.  While Magalhaes falls under the category of grinder and not finisher, he’s just the kind of opponent Means might rather pass on in their respective UFC debuts.  This fight will go the distance, and Magalhaes will control the pace and wring out a decision.

Justin Salas v. Anton Kuivanen
Defending Salas: Jason Kelly 

Salas and Kuivanen was a difficult match to pick a winner, but I had to go with home field advantage.

Salas made waves in the MMA world when he defeated Jake Ellenberger’s brother, Joe, at Victory Fighting Championship 36 in October 2011.  Salas was immediately on the UFC radar and I believe the momentum is still behind him.  Kuivanen hails from Europe, where he compiled a 16-4 record with 12 stoppage victories.  The European mixed martial artist is skilled, but I question if he can defeat a guy like Salas, who has well-rounded stand-up and a strong wrestling background.  Salas also trains at Grudge MMA in Denver, Colo., alongside a group of combatants that compete in the UFC and under head coach Trevor Wittman.

The weighing factor in this selection is the fact that Salas has competed on American soil his entire career.  Kuivanen, on the other hand, is making his N. America debut in his first UFC bout.  I think this will play into the UFC jitters that first-timers so often speak of.

Salas takes home a UFC debut victory via TKO in Round 2.

Vagner Rocha vs. Jonathan Brookins
Defending Rocha: Shawn Baran 

John Albert vs. Ivan Menjivar
Defending Albert: Joe Rizzo 

Albert might not have won the final Spike season of The Ultimate Fighter, but his work in the TUF 14 Finale confirmed him to be a real prospect.  Albert knocked cold favored former TUF housemate Dustin Pague in just 69 seconds.  It might look like a leap for him to take on the vastly experienced Menjivar, but for Joe Silva to even put forth that match raises an eyebrow.  If Silva thinks Albert is that good, then I am with him.  In his most recent UFC stint, Menjivar is 2-0, with wins over Charlie Valencia and Nick Pace, but I had Pace winning a decision in that match.  Provided Albert is not intimidated by Menjivar’s 23-8 record, he’ll come out aggressive and earn the knockout.

T.J. Dillashaw vs.  Walel Watson
Defending Dillashaw: Robert G. Reynolds 

While T.J. Dillashaw may have lost the finale of TUF 14, he is still a high level competitor to be watched for in the bantamweight division.  Since only turning professional in 2010, Dillashaw showed early potential, running 4-0 before heading for the UFC.

Walel Watson has split his only two bouts with the organization, losing the last to Yves Jabouin at UFC 140 via split decision.  This was the first time that Watson had gone to the judges’ scorecards and they didn’t like what they saw.

I don’t expect anything flashy or fancy coming out of Dillashaw on Wednesday.  He wants to come out with a win and get back on track to where he was previous to the reality show.  Wrestling will play a strong part in this bout, so be ready for 15 minutes ground control as Dillashaw is going to walk away with the unanimous decision.

Philip De Fries vs. Stipe Miocic
Defending De Fries: Robert G. Reynolds 

Yes, both fighters may be undefeated, but the game changer here is going to be the submission dominance of Philip De Fries.  With De Fries hailing from England, this will mark his first trip across the pond to face battle.

With the majority of Stipe Miocic’s victories coming by way of some form of TKO, it is evident that the Brit is not going to want to trade blows with the American for long.  Look for an early takedown by De Fries and watch when he locks on his preferred submission – rear naked choke – midway through the first round to extend his undefeated streak to nine straight.

Ronny Markes vs. Aaron Simpson
Defending Markes: Mark Hensch 

This one’s a tough one as Simpson has made multiple appearances in the Octagon and Markes is fighting in only his second UFC match. Despite this disparity, I lean towards Markes for a number of reasons.

For starters, Markes has fought all over the world and won’t have the “new guy” jitters that occasionally plague unseasoned UFC fighters. Beyond that, Simpson’s biggest strength is his wrestling, and Markes is killer on the ground with a whole catalog of holds. Should they stay standing, I’d still wager Markes makes the cut as he’s shown he can get the knockout every bit as convincingly as Simpson.

What it comes down to is this – Markes has killer instinct, and Simpson doesn’t. Simpson hasn’t gone the distance in four fights, and the last time he did Chris Leben battered him so hard he fled and ran into the cage. He’s a better fighter than that performance made it appear, but I think Markes is hungry enough to edge him out here.

Dave Herman vs. Stefan Struve
Defending Herman: Shawn Baran 

 Diego Sanchez vs. Jake Ellenberger
Defending Sanchez: Jason Kelly 

When it comes to choosing Sanchez, how cannot one not say, “Yes?”

Sanchez has been a competitive UFC welterweight for nearly seven years, and his bout against Ellenberger will be No. 17 in the Octagon.  Sanchez has competed against B.J. Penn, Kenny Florian, Clay Guida, Jon Fitch, amongst other UFC top-ranked fighters.  Therefore, there is nothing Ellenberger will throw at Sanchez that “The Dream” hasn’t seen in the past.

Not only ferociousness and experience, Sanchez also has a well-rounded skill set he brings to the cage.   Sanchez has exhibited knockout and submission ability in previous bouts, not to mention he is as durable as they come.  Ellenberger has proven he hits hard- having 17 KO’s on his record- but Sanchez has withstood  his opponent’s hardest punches, weathered the storm and came back to win the contest.  I think Sanchez take a number of damaging shots from Ellenberger, possibly even bleed, but in the end the athlete formerly known as “The Nightmare” will be the victor.

Sanchez will defeat Ellenberger via split-decision.